Tesla just posted a year-over-year decline in California registrations — but don’t let the headlines fool you. It’s still dominating the state’s EV market by a massive margin.
The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) just released Q1 2025 data, and while Tesla’s numbers are down slightly from last year, it continues to hold the top spot among electric automakers in the Golden State.
Let’s break down what’s happening and what it really means.
Tesla’s California Numbers: A Slight Dip, But Still #1
- Tesla registered 42,322 vehicles from January through March 2025
- That’s down 15.1% from the 49,857 vehicles registered in Q1 2024
- Its ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) market share in California is now 43.9%, compared to 55.5% last year
Yes, it’s a decline — but Tesla still holds nearly half of the entire electric market in the largest EV state in the U.S.
Why the Drop? It’s Not What You Think
The decline isn’t necessarily about demand or brand reputation. According to Tesla, the drop was largely due to a production line switchover to the new Model Y build, which caused several weeks of delays.
- Model Y had 23,314 registrations in Q1 2025
(Down from 33,467 in Q1 2024 — roughly 10,000 fewer)
- Tesla has openly stated this was expected as it retooled for the next-gen version
But Not Everything Is Down — The Model 3 Surged
Interestingly, the Model 3 actually saw growth:
- 13,992 registrations this year
- Up from 11,162 in Q1 2024
That’s a clear sign that despite controversy or competition, buyers still trust the product.
What About the Cybertruck and Model X?
- Cybertruck: Ranked #8 with 2,282 registrations — not bad for a new launch
- Model X: Came in at #13 with 1,800 registrations
And let’s not forget: no other EV brand comes close.
- Ford, in second place, only registered 5,819 ZEVs in California during the same period
- That’s over 7X fewer than Tesla
Is Elon Musk’s Image Impacting Sales?
Some analysts and media reports claim Tesla is suffering from “brand damage” due to Elon Musk’s political activity.
The CNCDA even wrote:
“A year and a half of continuous quarterly declines proves this downward trajectory for Tesla is a lasting trend.”
But here’s the reality: Tesla is still leading by a landslide, and EV competition is simply getting stronger — as expected. More brands entering the market was always going to cause some dip in share.
The Model 3’s increase also proves that many buyers are focused on the car — not the headlines.
In conclusion, Tesla’s Q1 in California shows a drop — yes. But it also shows resilience.
- Still #1 in every meaningful category
- Still with nearly half the ZEV market
- Still miles ahead of competitors in registrations
With new models, FSD improvements, and the Cybercab rollout on the horizon, Tesla’s grip on the EV space remains solid — especially in its biggest market.
What do you think?
Are these numbers just part of natural market growth — or is Tesla truly losing steam?
Drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s talk EVs, data, and where Tesla goes from here.